The Syria-Israeli Peace Process

A few days ago I mentioned that I talked with Mr Dor Shapira about the chances of peace between Israel and Syria in regards to Israel returning the Golan Heights. I also linked you to this article which summed up the peace talks in a couple of sentences:

Cynics might also suggest that Israel’s beleaguered prime minister, Ehud Olmert, is using talks with Syria as a diversion from his troubles with the police in connection with allegations of corruption and money laundering.

A new peace process could divert international attention and persuade the major powers that making peace is more important than bringing Hariri’s killers to justice [Syria].

Now I’ve just looked at another article which confirms what I quoted above and also gives a few new interesting angles. It should be obvious now that even though Assad and Olmert are trying to get some sort of ‘peace’ and use it for their own political advantage its not going to happen as there are just to many factors that are coming into play.

First, not many people both in Israel and in the international community believe that Syria will actually honor any sort of agreement with Israel. Why should they? Most of their support comes from Iran which is absolutely committed to Israel’s destruction. Syria is Shiite, while most of the Middle East is Sunni, who else would they turn to if they isolate themselves from Iran, which is what Israel is asking for.

Second:

Assad reminds Israelis far more of Arafat than of Sadat. So far, Assad has refused even to hold direct negotiations with Israel, preferring Turkish interlocutors. Give me the Golan, he is in effect saying, and then we’ll see what kind of peace develops between us.

Not only is this guaranteed to have no positive outcome of the negotiations, it doesn’t take into account the fact that a lot of Israelis actually like the Golan with its natural beauty far more then they like the urban wasteland that is Gaza or the vast deserts of the Sinai.

View of the Golan Heights

Of coarse the most pressing issue of giving back the Golan Heights is the military strategic value that they hold. If Israel has no guarantee that Syria won’t break its links with terrorists, who says they won’t go back to their old game of shooting at Israeli civilians and soldiers alike from the Heights?

View of Syria from an Israeli Bunker

The article summarizes the situation quite nicely which shows just how correct the quote at the top is.

Israel’s Olmert hopes that peace negotiations will deflect attention from his own woes — allegations of corruption dating in part from his days as Jerusalem’s mayor. Other Israelis, though, are wondering how helping Assad destroy Lebanon and escape justice can possibly be confused for Israel’s national interest, let alone for a peace process.

Talk With Spokesperson For The Israeli Embassy In Australia

So sorry about the large gap between posts, I have been very busy with work and the like. I have another big load of work coming up in the next few weeks so regular posting won’t be back for a while yet, here’s a few tasters just to let you know that I’ve not given up on this blog. Anyway, two really nice articles from FrontPage.

1. Iraq Rising
   
2. Behind the Israel-Syria Talks

Just to let you know, last Wednesday (May 21), I heard Mr Dor Shapira, spokesperson for the Israeli Embassy in Canberra discuss the future of Israel for the next 60 years. I didn’t really learn that much primary because he went into the history of Israel, of which I am quite versed. Interestingly, one the questions asked was (paraphrasing here), what sort of contingency plan is there if talks with Fatah don’t work out (or Fatah is taken over by Hamas)? Mr Shapira didn’t really have an answer for it. He went on about trying to keep Fatah going but eventually admitted that Israel would be in ‘deep shit’ if that happened. I myself asked the question what sort of chance is there for Israel and Syria making peace? The answer that I got was its not likely that peace would achieved, it is doubtful that Syria would want to cut its relations with Iran and all the other terrorist groups. He also mentioned that it was a kind of cycle, every three years or so there would be talks but no real action.

That’s pretty much all the exciting things that have happened to me this week, yay… Once again hopefully I will have some more posts for you all.

Israel ‘Ready To Return Golan’

Great, why Olmert just why? Why would you give up a strategic peace of land for peace? Lets look at the situation realistically. Syria is no threat to Israel, hell if Syria even twitches we can move in and do what the fuck we want. As an example just think back to September 2007. I know I sound like a war monger dissing peace and all, but it makes no sense to give Syria the high ground (literally) and making them promise not to supply Hezbollah, etc. We know they are going to keep on doing it, We know that the Syrian public will PROBABLY never really accept Israel so why should we bother? Read the full story from the BBC here.

On second thoughts, the giving up of the Golan will probably not help Olmert’s popularity at home. So, go for it Olmert and see how long you last.

Rest In Peace William Buckley Jr./Israel Prepares For Incursion Into Gaza

Sorry about the lack of posts. I have been attending O-Week for my university (which I start this Monday). Anyway, first things first, RIP William F. Buckley, Jr. If you don’t know who that is, then check out the FrontPage article here.

In other doings:

9 Katyusha style Grad missiles rocked the center of Ashkelon on Thursday afternoon, one home suffered a direct hit, other missiles fell near the city’s central bus station and elsewhere in the city. Magen David Adom reported that two people were lightly wounded in the attack and 24 others were treated for shock. All in all MADA have treated a total of 55 people in Ashkelon and Sderot since the morning. On Thursday evening Defense Minister Ehud Barak ordered the authorities to activate the Red Color alert early warning system in Ashkelon which will be operational on Friday. Close to 80 Kassam rockets and missiles have been fired at southern Israel in the past 24 hours and nearly 1000 since the beginning of the year.

In any other part of the world, that would be considered an act of war. Instead with Israel, a lot of the world including the EU still sympathise with the Palestinians.

On Thursday, the air force launched 21 air strikes targeting terorr operatives, headquarters and Kassam rocket launchers in the Gaza Strip, and since Wednesday evening, 27 Palestinians were killed in the Gaza Strip. Government ministers demanded to convene a security cabinet meeting to discuss the situation. Earlier in the day several ministers demanded to retaliate harshly, flattening neighborhoods in Gaza in response to the escalation.

Interior Minister MK Sheetrit has stated on Infolive.tv that “A large scale ground operation in Gaza would not be enough to stop Hamas from firing rockets.” Instead “Israel should kill any member of Hamas it can, anyone involved in launching rockets is responsible and should be taken out.”

Strangely enough I remember arguing from this perspective a few months ago to someone at a party. I was told that I was an advocate of genocide. I said thank you, yes I am in favour of a deliberate and systematic destruction of an entire people who belong to a certain political/religious group that yearns for my destruction. Somehow I don’t think that was what he was getting at… Furthermore, an IDF Army General has stated that “…any action in Gaza is long overdue and that Israel should have taken care of this situation months ago.” (Statement from Infolive.tv - link above)

Of course its no surprise to anyone that Israel has been planning such an offensive into the Gaza Strip; it makes sense both politically and morally. The Jerusalem Post has more:

Barak, during a series of meetings at the Defense Ministry, said, “We should be prepared for an upswing in hostilities in Gaza. The big ground operation is a reality and it is tangible. We are not eager to embark upon such an operation, but we are not put off by it either.”

According to defense sources, the goals of such an operation - reportedly in the planning stages for weeks if not months - would not “merely” be to reduce the threat of rocket fire and rocket manufacturing in the Gaza Strip, but would also likely entail paralyzing the Hamas government’s ability to operate, and even include “regime change.”

The important part of that paragraph is at the end. Let me make this point clear, for me, the only thing that can definitely stop these rocket attacks from Gaza would be a regime change. A change to a government far more liberal then anything like Fatah. A government which is not guided by terror but instead by a will for peace. Fine words you might be saying, tell us how. To me, the only way to do it, would be for educators, either Israeli or neutral to go there and educate Palestinian children and adults on ‘acceptable’ (I leave it to your imagination what that means because I am not sure) behavior and attitudes. For example things like it is wrong to call Jews the sons of pigs and apes and other such rhetoric. Modifications to behavior for examples things like, it is not ok to go and blow yourself up inside a mall or a disco filled with people. You may not agree with what I say, but I firmly believe that is the only way we might see peace between Israel and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Of course, such an action would probably take generations.

…

Barak also offered hints as to his plans, telling local community leaders gathered at Sapir Academic College outside Sderot that “the solution to Kassams will be a lot quicker than many people think.” And the Foreign Ministry, in talking points sent to its representatives abroad, instructed them to say that when Israel left the Gaza Strip in 2005 it did so without the intention of ever returning, but that the continuation of terrorist attacks was likely to place the country in a position where it may have no other choice.

The ministry also instructed its representatives to reveal that the Grad missiles that were fired at Ashkelon on Thursday were smuggled through Sinai from Iran.

According to one diplomatic source, stressing the Iranian origin of the missiles showed the importance of aggressive action to stop the smuggling and isolate Hamas from Syria and Iran, which “directs the organization’s terrorist actions.”

“We have warned for a while about the arming of Hamas, and what is happening now is proof of this,” the official said.

Former Mossad Operative Talks Of Muganiyah’s Demise

A very interesting interview here from infolive.tv examining the assisination of Muganiyah.  I am not sure if the video will be taken down so watch it while you can.

Dr. Mishka Ben-David, former senior Mossad operative and author of a number of bestselling novels talks with Infolive.tv about the assassination of Hizbullah commander Imad Muganiyah. While Israel has denied all involvement, Ben-David, taking into account his past  experiences, talks of  the repercussions  such an operation may have, Hizbullah’s response, and the months of intelligence gathering such an operation requires. 02/14/08

Analysis Of Imad Mugniyeh’s Death

Now for the big post of today, what are the consequences of Mugneyeh’s death? Who will be affected and what is the supposed link between him, Iran and 9/11? FrontPage Magazine has decided to get Kenneth R. Timmerman, the New York Times bestselling author of Countdown to Crisis, The French Betrayal of America, Preachers of Hate: Islam and the War on America, and Death Lobby: How the West Armed Iraq to answer these questions.

Kenneth R. Timmerman

You can view the whole article here, as I will only be adding my comments to part of it.

FP: So who do you think is responsible for Mugniyeh’s killing? What is their motive?

KT: The list of Mugniyeh’s enemies is long. Hizbullah, of course, has accused the Israelis [edit: naturally]. It won’t be long before they accuse us, too. One of my sources who grew up with Mugniyeh and remains close to his family in Lebanon, told me yesterday morning that Hizbullah surveillance teams picked up the arrival at Beirut airport of an 8-man U.S. paramilitary team just two days before Mugniyeh was killed.

Now that is interesting, lately, the U.S. hasn’t really given a damn about a Hizbullah, pretty much leaving them for the Israelis to deal with. More involvement with Lebanon perhaps? Or it could be a desire for the U.S. to get more involved in Syria (or Iran), considering that Hizbullah is an important tool of both Syria and Iran. Keep in mind that it would be wise to take this with a grain of salt, the reliablilty on that statement above would not be good in my opinion.

I saw a report just yesterday suggesting that the Rev. Guards lured Mugniyeh into a trap into Damascus, to make sure that he never revealed the extent of his involvement with al Qaeda in the 9//11 plot. This was a secret the Iranians would have liked to ensure that Mugniyeh carried to his grave.

I’ve got news for them, though: the word is out. Just take a look at pages 240-241 of the 9/11 commission report, which describes in elusive terms the travel of eight to ten of the “muscle” hijackers in and out of Iran in the company of a “senior Hizbullah operative.” That operative was none other than Imad Mugniyeh.

So this is an alternate explanation. This seems more plausible as it would make sense from an Iranian point of view, however there is some possible doubt over it simply because I am sure the Iranians would have read the 9/11 commission report. If their guy was already blamed then why bother to hide their connection if the U.S. government already knew of it. I mean sure they would have liked Mugniyeh to carry his secrets to the grave, but to me it seems like killing the patient to cure the disease. Mugnieyh would still be very useful despite the risks in keeping him alive and away from U.S. hands, the Iranians would still be able to do this, that’s why this interests me.

FP: In other words, you are saying that Mugniyeh was involved with the 9/11 terror attack and so was Iran - and the Iranians might have very well killed him so that the full extent of their own involvement would not become known.

KT: There is absolutely no doubt that Mugniyeh and his masters in Iran were directly and materially involved in the 9/11 plot.

First, there is the evidence discovered very late in the day by the 9/11 Commission, which I describe in detail in Countdown to Crisis. What is astonishing is that this information has not been widely publicized. I spoke again just yesterday with one of the top investigators involved in reviewing the highly-classified U.S. intelligence reports on Mugniyeh’s involvement in convoying 9/11 hijackers in and out of Iran prior to 9/11. He was astonished when I told him that few people were yet aware of this. “That’s like saying you didn’t know that Jesse James was a crook,” he said.

That’s why it doesn’t make sense to me for the Iranians to kill off a very good and respected operative (terrorist), because like it says above, everyone in  the U.S. intelligence community already knows about the link. It would make sense to kill  him off straight after 9/11, but not now  7 years later when  America is bogged down in Iraq and there is no chance of a military invasion.

The Iranians were TERRIFIED on the day of 9/11 and for the next month that the United States would “connect the dots” and discover their involvement to the 9/11 plot, as I reported in Countdown to Crisis. Senior Iranian government officials were making desperate phone calls to relatives in the United States, asking them to rent apartments for family members so they could get out of Tehran before what they assumed would be a massive retaliatory U.S. military strike.

As I said earlier, it would make sense then but not now. I don’t think that the Iranians actually had a hand in this (as crazy as that may sound), I personally think that either it was Israel, regardless of whether they are denying it or not (that goes for the U.S. as well) or one of the anti-Syrian groups in Lebanon. Of course, we can’t rule out the possibility of an unknown player, but I think that is less likely.

Of course, as we know now, that U.S. retaliatory strike never occurred – because the CIA and other U.S. government agencies succeeded in burying the information they had collected (or the case of our technical agencies, that they had siphoned up).

I believe when Americans realize the full extent of the Iranian government involvement in the 9/11 plot, they will demand action from their president – no matter what party affiliation that president may have.

And I really hope they do.

FP: What ramifications does this assassination have for Hezbollah? For Lebanon? For the terror war in general? There will be retaliation won’t there?

KT: Hezbollah is no longer a small gang of bang-men and two-bit thugs, but a world class terror operation with extraordinarily good intelligence, state-of-the-art communications, and networks spanning the globe. Hizbullah always retaliates when one of their men gets whacked. And with the exception of their top leader, Hassan Nasrallah, no one was more important than Mugniyeh to their organization.

One of my sources, who is close to the top Hizbullah leadership, told me recently that Mugniyeh won the personal loyalty of Hizbullah fighters and the leadership in the early 1990s when he almost single-handedly financed Hizbullah’s operations through drug-smuggling in the tri-state border zone in South America. When Hizbullah would send their fighters to train in Revolutionary Guards camps in Iran, it was Mugniyeh who personally shook their hands and congratulated them on graduation day.

This is just another reason why I don’t believe that Iran or Syria would knock off a top operative like that. It just doesn’t make any sense.

Today, February 14, is the third anniversary of the assassination of Lebanese prime minister Rafic Hariri, and his supporters are planning a huge demonstration in Beirut. Hizbullah is also planning a huge demonstration, to bury Mugniyeh. The possibility that the two groups could clash is very great. Just the morning of Mugniyeh’s death, a leader of the anti-Syrian coalition, Walid Jumblatt, warned Hizbullah that the coalition would disarm Hizbullah. “If you want war, then we’ll have war,” he said. Things are not going well in Lebanon, and this has just turned up the heat on a pressure-cooker already about to explode.

That is the main reason why I believe it was an anti-Syrian group that may have done this. They have much more to gain by knocking him off then anyone else in the region. Why should America and Israel get their hands dirty when they already have these groups in Lebanon and Syria already set up and good to go? America has enough problems in Afghanistan and Iraq, while Israel has its hands full dealing with the PA and Hamas.

FP: This is a great day of celebration and joy for Americans, Israelis and all those on the side of freedom, right?

KT: Without any doubt. State Department spokesman Sean Mccormack said it nicely on Wednesday. “The world is a better place without this man in it. One way or the other he was brought to justice.” Other U.S. government officials have made similar comments. This is a man who prided himself on never carrying out two terrorist operations that were identical to each other. 

Syria Hizbullah Hold Israel Responsible For Death Of Imad Mughniyeh

Yay, a top Hizbullah operative has been killed! No one is sure who did it. Israel denies it, but seriously hats off to the person who knocked this fucker off. On the link above there is also a video about this news article.

A car bomb killed senior Hizbullah leader Imad Mugniyah in Damascus Wednesday. No one claimed responsibility for the attack, but Hizbullah has already pointed fingers at Israel. Mugniyah killed hundreds of people during his 30 year career in terrorism. He was behind the 1985 hijacking of a TWA jet in Lebanon, several attacks on Jews in Argentina during the 1990s, and the bombing of both a US Marine compound and the American Embassy in Beirut in the 80s. Europe, the U.S. and Israel all wanted Mugniyah on charges of terrorism. Israel says it was not responsible for killing Mugniyah, but that’s not enough for Hizbullah. The terrorist organization says it will retaliate against Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide.

Don’t you just love how a terrorist organisation work, remember these people are part of the Lebanese government. Even if we have no proof we will not only go after who we think it is, we will go after the associates of our suspect, even if they may be innocent! This is just another reason why I have never understood how normal people in America, Europe or even Australia could support Hezbullah. More from the Jerusalem Post.

The assassination came as a shock to many Arabs who said they could not understand how the assassins managed to catch up with such a prominent figure, considering the tough security measures taken by Hizbullah and Syrian intelligence services.

The consensus among most Arab political analysts was that the assassination was a “severe blow” to Hizbullah and its patrons in Teheran and Damascus. One of them said it would take years for Hizbullah to recover from the assassination and its repercussions. “The fact that the killers managed to reach such an important figure should sound an alarm bell in Hizbullah,” he said. “This means that Hizbullah’s top brass has been infiltrated by the Israelis and Americans.”

Another Arab analyst revealed that Mughniyeh had never slept in the same place for more than two nights. And each time he entered a certain house, he would leave it through a back window, the analyst said. “This is a black day for Hizbullah and its secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah,” he added. “This is a moral victory for Israel and the US.”

…

Hizbullah legislator Ismail Sukeyir said the organization’s leadership would meet in Beirut to discuss its response to the assassination. “Hizbullah has the right to retaliate anywhere in the world and in any way it sees fit,” he said.

See what I mean?