The Syria-Israeli Peace Process

A few days ago I mentioned that I talked with Mr Dor Shapira about the chances of peace between Israel and Syria in regards to Israel returning the Golan Heights. I also linked you to this article which summed up the peace talks in a couple of sentences:

Cynics might also suggest that Israel’s beleaguered prime minister, Ehud Olmert, is using talks with Syria as a diversion from his troubles with the police in connection with allegations of corruption and money laundering.

A new peace process could divert international attention and persuade the major powers that making peace is more important than bringing Hariri’s killers to justice [Syria].

Now I’ve just looked at another article which confirms what I quoted above and also gives a few new interesting angles. It should be obvious now that even though Assad and Olmert are trying to get some sort of ‘peace’ and use it for their own political advantage its not going to happen as there are just to many factors that are coming into play.

First, not many people both in Israel and in the international community believe that Syria will actually honor any sort of agreement with Israel. Why should they? Most of their support comes from Iran which is absolutely committed to Israel’s destruction. Syria is Shiite, while most of the Middle East is Sunni, who else would they turn to if they isolate themselves from Iran, which is what Israel is asking for.

Second:

Assad reminds Israelis far more of Arafat than of Sadat. So far, Assad has refused even to hold direct negotiations with Israel, preferring Turkish interlocutors. Give me the Golan, he is in effect saying, and then we’ll see what kind of peace develops between us.

Not only is this guaranteed to have no positive outcome of the negotiations, it doesn’t take into account the fact that a lot of Israelis actually like the Golan with its natural beauty far more then they like the urban wasteland that is Gaza or the vast deserts of the Sinai.

View of the Golan Heights

Of coarse the most pressing issue of giving back the Golan Heights is the military strategic value that they hold. If Israel has no guarantee that Syria won’t break its links with terrorists, who says they won’t go back to their old game of shooting at Israeli civilians and soldiers alike from the Heights?

View of Syria from an Israeli Bunker

The article summarizes the situation quite nicely which shows just how correct the quote at the top is.

Israel’s Olmert hopes that peace negotiations will deflect attention from his own woes — allegations of corruption dating in part from his days as Jerusalem’s mayor. Other Israelis, though, are wondering how helping Assad destroy Lebanon and escape justice can possibly be confused for Israel’s national interest, let alone for a peace process.

Talk With Spokesperson For The Israeli Embassy In Australia

So sorry about the large gap between posts, I have been very busy with work and the like. I have another big load of work coming up in the next few weeks so regular posting won’t be back for a while yet, here’s a few tasters just to let you know that I’ve not given up on this blog. Anyway, two really nice articles from FrontPage.

1. Iraq Rising
   
2. Behind the Israel-Syria Talks

Just to let you know, last Wednesday (May 21), I heard Mr Dor Shapira, spokesperson for the Israeli Embassy in Canberra discuss the future of Israel for the next 60 years. I didn’t really learn that much primary because he went into the history of Israel, of which I am quite versed. Interestingly, one the questions asked was (paraphrasing here), what sort of contingency plan is there if talks with Fatah don’t work out (or Fatah is taken over by Hamas)? Mr Shapira didn’t really have an answer for it. He went on about trying to keep Fatah going but eventually admitted that Israel would be in ‘deep shit’ if that happened. I myself asked the question what sort of chance is there for Israel and Syria making peace? The answer that I got was its not likely that peace would achieved, it is doubtful that Syria would want to cut its relations with Iran and all the other terrorist groups. He also mentioned that it was a kind of cycle, every three years or so there would be talks but no real action.

That’s pretty much all the exciting things that have happened to me this week, yay… Once again hopefully I will have some more posts for you all.

Daily Kos Hits Earth’s Core, Digs

Sorry guys for the large break. I’ve had a lot of work to get through, but know the worst is over, yay! Israel has made it to her 60th birthday which is something to celebrate, even if there those who can’t appreciate it, here and here, hat tip to LGF.

My favourite of these links is the Daily Kos one, just read this and laugh.

It thus emerged as a major power and a formidable challenger of existing Arabic powers that will decide the fate of the world, coordinated assassination of President Kennedy which unnaturally led to the hasty re-evaluation of American foreign policy for adjustion that align with the interests of Israeli state for total compatibility in irreversibly entangled alliance.

A Time To Mourn And A Time To Remember

I’m sure you’ve all heard by now of the cyclone in Burma which devastated the country. What I find so appalling is that the ruling military Junta is not allowing any foreign aid into the country! The obvious reason of course is they don’t want the UN to come in with aid and then see the human rights violations that have been committed. I’ve just recently found out that approximately 80,000 people have been killed by this cyclone.

“The storm came into our village, and a giant wave washed in, dragging everything into the sea,” said one man in his 20s, who had trekked in from Kanyinkone village. “Houses collapsed, buildings collapsed, and people were swept away. I only survived by hanging on to a big tree. “Only about 20 per cent of the people survived in our village. I am the only one who survived in my family. My wife and my two children died in the storm.”

The Labutta district was hard hit when Nargis and its huge storm surge slammed ashore on Saturday, devastating the low-lying Irrawaddy delta. “The waves were so strong, they ripped off all my clothes. I was left naked hanging in a tree,” said one teenage survivor. Based on stories from people emerging from the countryside, only about 20 per cent of people in the area survived, Labutta residents said.

Absolutely disgusting. As for remembering, its Israel’s birthday in a few days, yay! Israel has been celebrating its dependence in a very IDF way, with Paratroopers from around the world jumping in Israel. Also, here is a very interesting and special story from a man who served in the 2nd Lebanon War. Some of the things he and his men had to cope with are just incredible. Its interesting because the person being interviewed, Dr. Yehuda David, believes that Israel could have won the war if given 3 more days.

Happy Pesach and Chag Sameach!

Just wishing everybody a happy Pesach and Chag Sameach! I am definitely looking forward to this Pesach as my mother will be making her trademark (and best) chocolate Matza’s as well as this, the Seder which I will be going to will have around 40 people! Before I leave, here’s the link for Michael Totten’s new post about the tribes in Iraq and how the Marines are trying to use them to contain a sustainable democracy.

Captain Quintin Jones and Mayor Abu Abdullah

Also I leave you with another link to an article written by Margot Dudkevitch from Infolive.tv about the amount of weapons that are being smuggled into the Gaza Strip through the most interesting ways.

In recent months,  Iran has increased its efforts to smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip via the sea and also tunnels between Egypt and Gaza, sending the Hamas and Islamic Jihad terror groups there not only weapons and rifles but advanced Iranian made rockets and mortar shells.

…

A report in the Jerusalem Post says that many of the weapons are too big to smuggle through the tunnels built underneath the Philadelphi Corridor linking Egypt and the Gaza Strip, and therefore resort to dropping them off the waters in Gaza in waterproof sealed tubes.

Former Mossad Operative Talks Of Muganiyah’s Demise

A very interesting interview here from infolive.tv examining the assisination of Muganiyah.  I am not sure if the video will be taken down so watch it while you can.

Dr. Mishka Ben-David, former senior Mossad operative and author of a number of bestselling novels talks with Infolive.tv about the assassination of Hizbullah commander Imad Muganiyah. While Israel has denied all involvement, Ben-David, taking into account his past  experiences, talks of  the repercussions  such an operation may have, Hizbullah’s response, and the months of intelligence gathering such an operation requires. 02/14/08

Analysis Of Imad Mugniyeh’s Death

Now for the big post of today, what are the consequences of Mugneyeh’s death? Who will be affected and what is the supposed link between him, Iran and 9/11? FrontPage Magazine has decided to get Kenneth R. Timmerman, the New York Times bestselling author of Countdown to Crisis, The French Betrayal of America, Preachers of Hate: Islam and the War on America, and Death Lobby: How the West Armed Iraq to answer these questions.

Kenneth R. Timmerman

You can view the whole article here, as I will only be adding my comments to part of it.

FP: So who do you think is responsible for Mugniyeh’s killing? What is their motive?

KT: The list of Mugniyeh’s enemies is long. Hizbullah, of course, has accused the Israelis [edit: naturally]. It won’t be long before they accuse us, too. One of my sources who grew up with Mugniyeh and remains close to his family in Lebanon, told me yesterday morning that Hizbullah surveillance teams picked up the arrival at Beirut airport of an 8-man U.S. paramilitary team just two days before Mugniyeh was killed.

Now that is interesting, lately, the U.S. hasn’t really given a damn about a Hizbullah, pretty much leaving them for the Israelis to deal with. More involvement with Lebanon perhaps? Or it could be a desire for the U.S. to get more involved in Syria (or Iran), considering that Hizbullah is an important tool of both Syria and Iran. Keep in mind that it would be wise to take this with a grain of salt, the reliablilty on that statement above would not be good in my opinion.

I saw a report just yesterday suggesting that the Rev. Guards lured Mugniyeh into a trap into Damascus, to make sure that he never revealed the extent of his involvement with al Qaeda in the 9//11 plot. This was a secret the Iranians would have liked to ensure that Mugniyeh carried to his grave.

I’ve got news for them, though: the word is out. Just take a look at pages 240-241 of the 9/11 commission report, which describes in elusive terms the travel of eight to ten of the “muscle” hijackers in and out of Iran in the company of a “senior Hizbullah operative.” That operative was none other than Imad Mugniyeh.

So this is an alternate explanation. This seems more plausible as it would make sense from an Iranian point of view, however there is some possible doubt over it simply because I am sure the Iranians would have read the 9/11 commission report. If their guy was already blamed then why bother to hide their connection if the U.S. government already knew of it. I mean sure they would have liked Mugniyeh to carry his secrets to the grave, but to me it seems like killing the patient to cure the disease. Mugnieyh would still be very useful despite the risks in keeping him alive and away from U.S. hands, the Iranians would still be able to do this, that’s why this interests me.

FP: In other words, you are saying that Mugniyeh was involved with the 9/11 terror attack and so was Iran - and the Iranians might have very well killed him so that the full extent of their own involvement would not become known.

KT: There is absolutely no doubt that Mugniyeh and his masters in Iran were directly and materially involved in the 9/11 plot.

First, there is the evidence discovered very late in the day by the 9/11 Commission, which I describe in detail in Countdown to Crisis. What is astonishing is that this information has not been widely publicized. I spoke again just yesterday with one of the top investigators involved in reviewing the highly-classified U.S. intelligence reports on Mugniyeh’s involvement in convoying 9/11 hijackers in and out of Iran prior to 9/11. He was astonished when I told him that few people were yet aware of this. “That’s like saying you didn’t know that Jesse James was a crook,” he said.

That’s why it doesn’t make sense to me for the Iranians to kill off a very good and respected operative (terrorist), because like it says above, everyone in  the U.S. intelligence community already knows about the link. It would make sense to kill  him off straight after 9/11, but not now  7 years later when  America is bogged down in Iraq and there is no chance of a military invasion.

The Iranians were TERRIFIED on the day of 9/11 and for the next month that the United States would “connect the dots” and discover their involvement to the 9/11 plot, as I reported in Countdown to Crisis. Senior Iranian government officials were making desperate phone calls to relatives in the United States, asking them to rent apartments for family members so they could get out of Tehran before what they assumed would be a massive retaliatory U.S. military strike.

As I said earlier, it would make sense then but not now. I don’t think that the Iranians actually had a hand in this (as crazy as that may sound), I personally think that either it was Israel, regardless of whether they are denying it or not (that goes for the U.S. as well) or one of the anti-Syrian groups in Lebanon. Of course, we can’t rule out the possibility of an unknown player, but I think that is less likely.

Of course, as we know now, that U.S. retaliatory strike never occurred – because the CIA and other U.S. government agencies succeeded in burying the information they had collected (or the case of our technical agencies, that they had siphoned up).

I believe when Americans realize the full extent of the Iranian government involvement in the 9/11 plot, they will demand action from their president – no matter what party affiliation that president may have.

And I really hope they do.

FP: What ramifications does this assassination have for Hezbollah? For Lebanon? For the terror war in general? There will be retaliation won’t there?

KT: Hezbollah is no longer a small gang of bang-men and two-bit thugs, but a world class terror operation with extraordinarily good intelligence, state-of-the-art communications, and networks spanning the globe. Hizbullah always retaliates when one of their men gets whacked. And with the exception of their top leader, Hassan Nasrallah, no one was more important than Mugniyeh to their organization.

One of my sources, who is close to the top Hizbullah leadership, told me recently that Mugniyeh won the personal loyalty of Hizbullah fighters and the leadership in the early 1990s when he almost single-handedly financed Hizbullah’s operations through drug-smuggling in the tri-state border zone in South America. When Hizbullah would send their fighters to train in Revolutionary Guards camps in Iran, it was Mugniyeh who personally shook their hands and congratulated them on graduation day.

This is just another reason why I don’t believe that Iran or Syria would knock off a top operative like that. It just doesn’t make any sense.

Today, February 14, is the third anniversary of the assassination of Lebanese prime minister Rafic Hariri, and his supporters are planning a huge demonstration in Beirut. Hizbullah is also planning a huge demonstration, to bury Mugniyeh. The possibility that the two groups could clash is very great. Just the morning of Mugniyeh’s death, a leader of the anti-Syrian coalition, Walid Jumblatt, warned Hizbullah that the coalition would disarm Hizbullah. “If you want war, then we’ll have war,” he said. Things are not going well in Lebanon, and this has just turned up the heat on a pressure-cooker already about to explode.

That is the main reason why I believe it was an anti-Syrian group that may have done this. They have much more to gain by knocking him off then anyone else in the region. Why should America and Israel get their hands dirty when they already have these groups in Lebanon and Syria already set up and good to go? America has enough problems in Afghanistan and Iraq, while Israel has its hands full dealing with the PA and Hamas.

FP: This is a great day of celebration and joy for Americans, Israelis and all those on the side of freedom, right?

KT: Without any doubt. State Department spokesman Sean Mccormack said it nicely on Wednesday. “The world is a better place without this man in it. One way or the other he was brought to justice.” Other U.S. government officials have made similar comments. This is a man who prided himself on never carrying out two terrorist operations that were identical to each other. 

Syria Hizbullah Hold Israel Responsible For Death Of Imad Mughniyeh

Yay, a top Hizbullah operative has been killed! No one is sure who did it. Israel denies it, but seriously hats off to the person who knocked this fucker off. On the link above there is also a video about this news article.

A car bomb killed senior Hizbullah leader Imad Mugniyah in Damascus Wednesday. No one claimed responsibility for the attack, but Hizbullah has already pointed fingers at Israel. Mugniyah killed hundreds of people during his 30 year career in terrorism. He was behind the 1985 hijacking of a TWA jet in Lebanon, several attacks on Jews in Argentina during the 1990s, and the bombing of both a US Marine compound and the American Embassy in Beirut in the 80s. Europe, the U.S. and Israel all wanted Mugniyah on charges of terrorism. Israel says it was not responsible for killing Mugniyah, but that’s not enough for Hizbullah. The terrorist organization says it will retaliate against Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide.

Don’t you just love how a terrorist organisation work, remember these people are part of the Lebanese government. Even if we have no proof we will not only go after who we think it is, we will go after the associates of our suspect, even if they may be innocent! This is just another reason why I have never understood how normal people in America, Europe or even Australia could support Hezbullah. More from the Jerusalem Post.

The assassination came as a shock to many Arabs who said they could not understand how the assassins managed to catch up with such a prominent figure, considering the tough security measures taken by Hizbullah and Syrian intelligence services.

The consensus among most Arab political analysts was that the assassination was a “severe blow” to Hizbullah and its patrons in Teheran and Damascus. One of them said it would take years for Hizbullah to recover from the assassination and its repercussions. “The fact that the killers managed to reach such an important figure should sound an alarm bell in Hizbullah,” he said. “This means that Hizbullah’s top brass has been infiltrated by the Israelis and Americans.”

Another Arab analyst revealed that Mughniyeh had never slept in the same place for more than two nights. And each time he entered a certain house, he would leave it through a back window, the analyst said. “This is a black day for Hizbullah and its secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah,” he added. “This is a moral victory for Israel and the US.”

…

Hizbullah legislator Ismail Sukeyir said the organization’s leadership would meet in Beirut to discuss its response to the assassination. “Hizbullah has the right to retaliate anywhere in the world and in any way it sees fit,” he said.

See what I mean?